Spain, France, Italy & UK Will ‘Suffer Most’ if Struck by Another Covid-19 Outbreak, says OECD

The G20 countries that will suffer the brunt of the Covid-19 crisis if there is another wave of the pandemic, according to the latest report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

SPAIN along with France, Italy and the United Kingdom are the G20 countries expected to suffer the most, confirmed the OECD. However, should another strong outbreak of the virus strike the nation, Spain will be the most affected country in the G20 by the pandemic. The OECD forecasts a sharp drop of 14.4 per cent in the country’s GDP if it is struck by another Covid-19 outbreak. If not, GDP will decline around 11.1 per cent so long as there are no other outbreaks of the infection.

The OECD attributes these huge declines to the tourism sector, which practically came to a standstill during the lockdown, and will take time to recover to pre-Covid-19 levels. “The decline in external demand will impact tourism services even further,” according to the OECD. It will also affect Spain’s automobile industry, which has been hugely affected by the pandemic too.

That said, the OECD, along with the IMF and the World Bank, expect a slow and rocky road to recovery in the world economy after the coronavirus crisis. In the best case scenario, with no new outbreaks, the world economy will fall 6 per cent this year, with the euro zone falling 9.1 per cent and the Spanish dropping by 11.1 per cent. But in the event of a second Covid-19 wave, we are looking at significant declines of 7.6 per cent, 11.5 per cent and 14.4 per cent, respectively.