Will Brexit lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom?

Credit Scottish Parliament flickr
LEAVE: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, may call another referendum.

AS far as expats are concerned, the closing date for registration for the referendum is now passed and we now await a decision concerning the final wishes of the British people as far as the European Union is concerned.

Reports suggest that a significant percentage of the population has registered to vote and as many as 400,000 took advantage of the 48-hour extension in order to either check that they were registered or to actually register.

Generally business and international observers are in favour of a remain vote whilst a large number of individuals are very much in favour of the exit. There is bound to be continued vocal ‘encouragement’ from both sides of the argument in the countdown to the actual vote, and there seems to be no clear leader, with finance motivating one view and immigration the other, although the ‘bookies’ continue to make a remain result the favourite.

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Brexit campaigners have complained that the 48-hour extension has seen an unfair advantage to the remain group, as a large number of younger voters registered and it’s considered most likely that they will want to remain.

Interestingly, despite the lack of general recognition for David Cameron as a ‘statesman-like’ figure, he might just go down in history as the leader who shook up the EU thanks to the fact that he allowed himself to be put in the position of having to call the referendum in the first place, and whatever happens it will also need to see changes.

If the outcome is to leave, nothing significant will happen in either the UK or Spain immediately, as we will have to wait to see what is agreed with the other 27 member states and other countries in the world, as Britain will in theory still remain a member for some time.

What does seem likely, assuming the Scottish vote is to remain and the overall vote is to leave, is that the Scottish parliament will probably demand another independence referendum and this could see the demise of the UK to go with the departure from the EU.

In the meantime, many of those with Irish roots are flocking to obtain Irish passports before it is too late, so that they can maintain their European rights and if there is an exit vote, it is likely that a number of people will be checking their lineage.


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