Spain moves out of ‘high risk’ level as cases continue to fall

Spain moves out of ‘high risk’ into ‘medium risk’ level as cases continue to fall.

After more than two months, Spain’s incidence rate has dropped to the “medium risk” level in terms of coronavirus contagion.

According to the latest Spanish Health Ministry report, which was released on Thursday evening, September 9. the 14-day cumulative number of coronavirus cases per 100,000 inhabitants now stands at 140.43, having fallen below the high-risk level of 150 for the first time since July 1.

The fifth wave of the pandemic in Spain continues to show a decline. Just 70 of the last 365 days have been outside of the high or very high risk of infections, these were recorded during two short periods, one at the beginning and the other at end of the spring.

These ‘incidence’ figures actually only refer to the likelihood of transmission. To calculate the global risk, each region must be taken into account, as well as the cumulative incidence, other transmission indicators and statistics such as hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) occupation levels.

On a national level, the figures are also at medium risk in terms of the ICUs, with less than 14% occupation by Covid-19 patients, and low in regular wards, with less than 5% occupation due to the disease.

These figures are also falling as since August 2, there have been progressively fewer Covid-19 patients in Spanish hospitals.

On Thursday, there were 5,115 patients in normal wards, which is half of the peak during the fifth wave and in the ICU, there were 1,257 patients.

There is also a progressive fall in the number of deaths- according to the Health Ministry data. While these numbers take weeks to settle, the trend is now clear, with a slow fall in the daily reported Covid-19 fatalities as well as the weekly figures.

The downward trend of all of the indicators in the pandemic is generalised in all of the regions, but nine still remain at high risk, these are: Aragón, Balearic Islands, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, Madrid, Navarre, the Basque Country and La Rioja.

The best data comes out of Asturias, which has a cumulative incidence of 56. At 81.1%, this region also has the highest percentage of its population with the full protection offered by the vaccines.

Given the fall in infections, most of Spain’s regions are progressively lifting social restrictions. Catalonia, for example, will lift all measures that still affect fundamental rights, such as the number of people at social meetings. It will, however, maintain capacity limits in hospitality venues.

What will happen in the coming days will largely depend in part on the effect that people will have as they return to the workplace after the holidays and the start of the new school year.

A few weeks will have to pass before it can be seen whether or not this has caused a rise in infections. By then, the percentage of the population that is fully vaccinated will be around 75%, including the majority of adolescents.

This will make the spread of the virus more difficult, although of course, it will not impede it fully, given that those who have been vaccinated can still be infected.

The under-12s are still yet to be vaccinated, and for now, there is no vaccine that has been approved for this group. The two main pharmaceutical groups that are supplying Spain, Pfizer and Moderna, are carrying out trials and will adjust the dosage for children.

By the end of the year, they are likely to have finished their work checking whether the vaccines are safe and effective for this age group, something that is likely to be complete by the end of this year.

If the trials are successful, the health authorities will have to decide whether to administer the vaccine, given that serious complications from Covid in children are very unlikely.

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