THE Andalucian economy could grow by at least 5.4 per cent in 2021 and 7 per cent in 2022 thanks to the advancement in vaccination, the favourable international environment, the greater consumption by Andalucian households and the boost that European funds will allow Next Generation EU (NGEU), according to the forecasts published this Wednesday, June 9, by BBVA Research.
In the case of Malaga, the increases could be higher, and even approach 10 per cent next year. The province of Malaga was one of the most affected by the fall in GDP in the past due to the weight of tourism, its fall was greater than the 11 per cent Andalucian decrease, and now, for the same reason, it will be one of the those who will most benefit from the economic rebound.
As reported by La Opinion de Malaga, the chief economist for Spain at BBVA Research, Miguel Cardoso commented “It is logical to think that if there is extensive growth in national and foreign tourism, the growth of Malaga will be higher than the national and Andalucian average, I would say close to double digits. But it is another thing to know when Malaga recovers the level of activity of 2019 when there were all-time highs in hotel occupancy. All this will depend on the willingness of Europeans to travel and tourist preferences after the pandemic.”
If these forecasts come to fruition, the Andalucian economy would create 177,000 new jobs in the 2020-2022 period. “In any case, the uncertainty is high, particularly with regard to the vaccination process, how the pandemic will trend and the distribution of European funds, which could condition the speed of recovery,” added Cardoso.