MODERATE growth curve expected in Spain’s Valencia in the next fifteen days
The Operational Research Centre (CIO) of the Miguel Hernandez de Elx University has warned of a moderate growth in the number of coronavirus infections in the Community of Valencia over the next fifteen days, but added that this is by no means a cause for alarm. The institution, which specialises in analysing the data to keep track of the pandemic, has made predictions based on the available figures, according to Spanish daily El Pais.
“We are in a moment of change in the trend,” researcher Jose Luis Saniz-Pardo explained. “The increase in cases was expected, we were in a period of decline and now we have stabilised,” he said, adding that a further “inflection” over the next two weeks or so is to be expected.
Researchers use a model similar to the cumulative incidence rate, which monitors cases over a fourteen day period. Their study shows that the worst-case scenario would see infections double in the next fourteen days while in the most favourable scenario cases will continue to drop, “although it is very unlikely that they will decrease further,” Mr Sainz-Pardo said. It is far more probable that a moderate increase in infections will be observed throughout Spain, owing to a relaxation of restrictions that allow more people to gather socially and have seen sports facilities reopen.
“We have the precedents that when restrictions are lowered, cases increase,” he said. The key, according to the researcher, is “to be attentive to how the rise is after Easter.” He did warn that while this expected increase is not yet cause for alarm, it does require caution “because all the waves begin with a growth that is first moderate and then ends up deteriorating.”
The figures produced by the University suggest that if a fourth wave were to hit, it should not be as bad as the third, and once the numbers only rise moderately we are essentially “buying time” to get more people vaccinated before it strikes.