By Tony Winterburn • Published: 31 Dec 2020 • 15:50
Shutting all schools still might not be enough to control ‘mutant’ Covid, SAGE warns.
Government advisors believe Tier 4 isn’t enough to bring the R number below 1 – and even if every school was to shut until March, it still might not work- the R number is the average number of people infected by each person with Covid-19. If it rises above 1, then the virus grows exponentially.
SAGE advisors sounded the grim warning in newly-revealed files that show the new variant may be spreading 71% more quickly. They also said the two-metre rule is “likely” to have to be “reconsidered” in light of the new variant. This could lead to people being told they can only break the two-metre rule they are wearing a mask.
The committee agreed “primary actions” to cut transmission would include “reducing social contacts; effective testing and tracing; robust outbreak identification and control; support to ensure effective isolation and quarantine; and population vaccination remain essential. Population-level approaches to further reduce contact between people are likely to be necessary, such as extending Tier 4; changing the operation of schools/ universities; travel restrictions between regions and internationally; and/or introducing a national lockdown.”
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