THE autonomous communities most reliant on tourism to finance their economy, such as the Balearic Islands and Canary Islands, will be the last ones to recover from the health crisis, however, areas more closely linked to the agricultural and alimentation sector will grow quickly through the de-escalation phase.
Spain’s full recovery in 2020 is dependent on various factors, the most important being the duration of the restrictive measures that have been put into place to limit the spread of the virus, as well as what public policies they decree in order to mitigate the negative consequences of lockdown.
According to BBVA Research, Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Castilla y Leon, La Rioja and the Community of Madrid will not have their activity as mitigated as other regions at least during this initial phase of the de-escalation.
The Basque Country, Galicia, Navarra and Aragon could also see their levels of activity recover at faster pace as these areas have a large industrial sector.
However, according to the forecast of the bank’s study service, the communities which are most dependent on both tourism and activities regarding social consumption will be most affected post-crisis as their recovery will be the slowest.
This is why there will be such a drastic drop in Spain’s GDP this year, which will be especially reflected by the decrease in areas like the Balearic Islands (17 per cent) and the Canary Islands (13 per cent).
Other popular tourist destinations like Costa Blanca’s Valencia and Costa del Sol’s Andalucía will feel the effects of a stagnant tourist sector and are forecasted to lose 8.2 per cent of their economy. Catalonia will lose 8.2 per cent.