A RESEARCH study conducted by the Polytechnic University of Valencia has warned about the risk of cases spiking if social distancing measures are relaxed too soon.
“Spain has already reached the peak number of coronavirus cases.” The Institute of Multidisciplinary Mathematics at the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) earned its prestige from the scientific community for forecasting the evolution of the pandemic in March.
It has now released a new study with an epidemiological model which predicts that the peak of hospitalised Covid-19 cases was registered on March 31 and that the peak number of patients in Intensive Care Units will be reached on April 9, a prediction which is similar to that of The University of Alicante’s.
Once the peak of infection has been reached, the researcher Rafael Villanueva, has explained that although it is still uncertain whether we will be able to return to normal life and under what conditions the quarantine will be lifted, they hypostasise that there will be a “staggered return” which will end throughout May.
Currently, the Covid-19 virus has been identified in over 110,000 cases in Spain and claimed the lives of 10,003 people. Meanwhile, 26,743 people have been discharged after overcoming the virus. Despite having reached the peak of the curve of new cases, the study indicates that the accumulated number of hospitalised patients, admissions to ICUs, and deceased will continue to increase at least until April 9.
Experts from the Institute of Multidisciplinary Mathematics assume that the current quarantine has reduced infections, overall hospitalisations and ICU admissions. However, they remind us that “the peak of the curve is the point where the largest number of an infected population begins to decrease,” and that “this does not mean that from there we can resume going outside freely as before, since this would cause another spike in the number of infections.” Therefore, the State of Alarm will have to be extended once again on April 11.