Calculations show that the number of cases of COVID-19 in Europe is doubled approximately every five days. At this rate the number of infected people in Spain would reach 250,000 within one month, the experts warn.
The world’s leading experts on virus spreading are now trying to calculate and predict how the corona pandemic will develop in the near future, especially in Europe. Their calculations also show that several large countries in the region are about two weeks behind Italy in the virus outbreak. Considering how the number of cases has exploded in the last couple of weeks, this is indeed concerning.
“What we see is not ‘rocket science’. You have two cases, then four, then eight and then 16”, says Francois Balloux at University College London.
Dirk Brockmann, professor at the Humboldt University in Berlin, and the one who designs infection models for the Robert Koch Institute, explains what this means for Spain:
“Spain, which recently “only” had 3,000 cases, can have a full 250,000 cases in just one month, provided the number of cases is doubled every five days.”
“These are numbers that epidemiologists expect. I think it’s most likely that we will all go the same way as Italy,” says Roy Anderson, professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London.
Last week, Germany’s Angela Merkel noted that between 60 and 70 per cent of the country’s 83 million inhabitants may become infected, something experts believe might be a possibility.
“If governments do nothing, or take ineffective measures, then almost 60 per cent of the population will be infected,” Roy Anderson concludes.