A week is a long time

CLOUDY DAY: The news coverage here has been all about the EU - UK relationship or Brexit. Photo: Shutterstock

MONDAY MORNING, has dawned as a dull and cloudy day in London.

No frost which is an improvement over recent days though with an expected high today of just 15c, with added rain and drizzle.

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The rest of the week is expected to be more of the same. Depressing. Oft times described as suicide weather. The news coverage here has been all about the EU – UK relationship or Brexit. Which is as depressing as the weather. The UK – EU affair appears to have so divided the electorate that there is no possibility of reconciliation in less than a generation. The hoped for outlook that once the legal situation is resolved to the satisfaction of the present parliamentarians that normality will be resumed is probably a delusion. Many of the current crop of Members of Parliament will lose their seats as their position is in any case precarious. While other MP’s have lost the support of the local supporters to the extent that many members of local political associations have stated they will not campaign for them. While other associations have deselected as candidates for the future, sitting MP’s. Reports indicate that yet more are likely to be deselected. So no, normality is not about to be resumed at the end of this week or any other week in the foreseeable future. Last night the Prime Minister Mrs Theresa May belatedly acknowledged that her Brexit deal was a dead letter. Mrs May persisted in promoting her Brexit Deal apparently against the advice of successive sets of Brexit Department Ministers, all those who actually wished to leave. Her Brexit Deal which to critics was a ‘Brexit in Name Only’ leaves Mrs May as ‘Prime Minister in Name Only.’

This morning news comes in from the IMF and other economic forecasters and commentators that global trade is slowing down ‘synchronously’. All the major economies , USA, Japan China and the EU are slowing or so they say. Ahead of their planned revision to their growth forecasts at the end of this week. Though IMF forecast are famous for their revisions! Up as well as down. Germany , long time the export powerhouse of the EU may be moving into a recession. Friday saw a raft of reports from German Federal economic institutions reporting continuing declines across a range of indicators. Italy is already in recession and France is enjoying what appears to a Londoner to be a weekly riot yards from the President’s Palace. Economically France is not exactly a power house at present either. The few bright notes are Greece and Spain which continue to display economic momentum. Though the EU can hardly hope to be wholly supported by just Greece and Spain. If the UK stays in the EU on current forecasts economic growth in the EU will depend on Greece , Spain and the UK.

Not the brightest start to a week at the end of which the UK could fall out of the EU or then again perhaps not. A lot may happen in a week and usually does.

Nick Horne, London , England


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