Brexit: What happens next?

‘MAY you live in interesting times’ goes the old apocryphal Chinese curse and interesting times do indeed lie ahead for Britain and the European Union who will now part ways after a stormy marriage spanning more than four decades. 

After 52 per cent of eligible British voters chose to leave, thwarting the optimism of last minute polling favouring the Remainers, facts on the ground have already changed dramatically.

The prime minister David Cameron has announced his resignation, opening the way to a leadership contest for the Conservative command, with Boris Johnson as a firm favourite, and even raising the possibility of a fresh general election.

Within hours of the result £128 billion had been wiped off the FTSE 100 as the pound tumbled to a 31-year-low and looked set to witness its biggest one-day-loss in history, expected to be sure, but hardly an encouraging omen for a nation preparing to set sail from its largest trading partner. 

Both camps had admitted ignorance as to how events might unfold should the country vote to leave, with the rivals factions using the spectre of the ‘unknown’ to press their cases to the electorate. 

Now that our voyage into the void is confirmed, speculation stands on stronger ground and we can begin composing an image of how events might unfold. 

Although the voters have spoken, the process of leaving will be tortuous and convoluted. Nothing will officially manifest until the UK government triggers Article 50 which sets in motion a two-year notice period for a member state to leave the union. 

Constitutionally speaking Article 50 can only be invoked by the prime minister, not parliament, although MP’s can pass a motion instructing the prime minister not to trigger the article. With Cameron resigning that responsibility now lies in the hands of his successor, while the prime minister can technically not leave his post without advising the Queen of whom that might be. 

Jeremy Corbyn will likely launch a confidence vote in a bid to spark fresh elections but is highly unlikely to succeed in a Tory dominated parliament, filled with MP’s desperate for some measure of stability and clearly at odds with public opinion. 

As the wheels slowly turn on Britain’s protracted exit from the union, British politics is where we will likely see the most action. The vast majority of politicians supported the status quo and are now proven to be out of lockstep with increasingly angry constituents, many of whom voted Brexit simply to spite Cameron and the ruling elites. 

Britain must now answer serious questions on democratic accountability and, unless a controversial Brexit faction takes over at the helm of government, we can expect voices from the Mail and UKIP to demand that parliament itself stands down. 

Should the Brexiteers successfully execute their coup, battle plans will likely be drawn up in Scotland where the nationalists have made clear that the result justifies a second independence referendum, especially given overwhelming Scottish support for the Remain camp. 

With two years to orchestrate a deal before Britain automatically reverts to the World Trade Organisation regime, whereby all goods sold to the EU will incur tariffs, the negotiations are likely to be both bitter and delicate. 

Any deal will require the backing of 20 of the 27 member states, all of whom will be considering incredibly varied calculations as to what is in their best interests. 

While the UK is doubtlessly an essential trading partner member states would be loathe to needlessly antagonise, they must also have one eye of their own restless electorates and the possibility that another chink in their collective armour might prove fatal.

It may well be in the states’ best interest to punish Britain as a warning to other prospective exiteeers, a threat roundly dismissed by the Leave campaign who seek solace in a thinly spread commonwealth and across the Atlantic.

Alternatively, given that two years is a long time in politics (only two years ago we were discussing the Scottish referendum), it is entirely plausible that the continent’s political landscape will shift in Brexit’s favour. 

Marine Le Pen, the French nationalist who is making serious strides in local elections, has welcomed the result and demanded a referendum in her own country, which remains gripped by tensions over immigration and a growing chasm between European elites and the common people. 

Sweden, Poland, Hungary, Holland and Denmark are also witnessing strengthening calls for similar referendums, lending credence to the idea that Brexit may well be the straw that broke the camel’s back. 

While all the wrangling goes on behind closed doors the key question for British workers, pensioners and expats is whether the country will remain in the single market. 

This would represent the so-called ‘Norway model’ advocated by many euro-sceptics who view the Nordic country’s financial success outside of the union as an example worth following. Such a development would see Britain enjoy tariff-free access to the lucrative internal market but not have any say over the rules and regulations that make it up. 

Norway does, however, have to implement around three quarters of EU legislation under this system while having negligible power or control over it. The country also has less control over immigration than the UK does at present. 

Whether Britain remains in the market is impossible to tell at these early stages and will depend largely on the outcome of the negotiations which will have to consider everything from pensions to health care, free movement, rebates and highly complex payment issues. 

The only precedent for leaving the EU was set by a semi-autonomous Greenland in 1985 due to a dispute over fishing rights when it had a population half the size of Dartford. 

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Comments


    • Mike in ESP

      26 June 2016 • 00:45

      Well Stuart I have always stated in other comments before the vote my main reasons on wanting to leave the EU where not to do with its cost or immigration although they where somewhere down my list.

      Many others who did vote leave where of the same thinking from what I seem of interviews with the public, maybe that is a reason that no matter how much the remain people shoved this $350M point down peoples throats they appear to have not been interested in it or they would have voted otherwise! Look for something else as to be honest it is all you hear anywhere from remain who can’t accept the leave vote, would be nice to hear something else than this £350 figure and leave voters being racists!

      BTW it is not the amount it costs each person, it is the principal of that cost! Stop worrying about trade, countries are already stating they want to trade with us including Germany and it is only day 2!

    • Brian Eagleson

      26 June 2016 • 01:22

      Wow Mike! What an astonishing display of quantity over quality. A landslide of insulting rants gets you nowhere. You won son. You got your Brexit. So what’s eating you up so much that you felt compelled to upload this ridiculous avalanche of abuse?

      Here’s a helpful bit of advice. Next time you feel like insulting decent people from behind the safety of your keyboard and screen imagine you are in the real world in front of a six foot four bodybuilding professional heavyweight boxer built like a tank and ask yourself if you would dare to say the same thing to his face. If you would then you are either extremely courageous or extremely foolish because he would punch you in the mouth – hard – and then wipe the floor with you. Let that be your litmus test before you mouth off any more gratuitous insults to anyone who happens to have a different point of view and try instead to use moderate but persuasive language.

      Using abusive language like yours is utterly counterproductive. No one was ever converted to someone else’s point of view by being insulted and abused. Geddit?

    • Brian Eagleson

      24 June 2016 • 12:17

      I’ve been silent for too long, but I refuse now to be intimidated any longer. You may think the whole of Britain has turned it’s back on Europe. In fact only England and Wales have. Northern Ireland and Scotland in particular voted overwhelmingly to remain in Europe (more than 62%). Queues are forming in Northern Ireland as people apply for dual citizenship with the Irish Republic in order to remain European and Sinn Féin wants a referendum on reuniting Ireland.

      As a Scot, born and bred, who voted to remain in Europe on 23rd June I have to say it would be unthinkable, unforgivable and entirely undemocratic if the Scottish people were booted out of Europe against their will by a minority Tory English government with only one Scottish MP. The Tory government in London has no democratic mandate in Scotland. Scotland did not vote for it. Last year Scotland voted SNP in all but three constituencies.

      You may think the decision to leave Europe is seismic. Well, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Just watch as Scotland and NI quit the UK and it shrinks to only England and Wales.

    • MikeInESP

      24 June 2016 • 14:07

      Oh Brian…

      First of all Nicola Sturgen hasn’t said she “will” give a referendum on Scotland leaving UK, listen to what she said! When you do you will understand she is playing very cleaver, sounds to me she is going to wait and see what happens over the next several months to see if The Brexit actually is damaging to Scotland before any decision would be taken “common sense”, that’s what I and others I have spoken to took from her speech this morning but you can of course go into a rage and take what you want from it! Whatever happens now I doubt very much that Scotland will vote to leave UK if given the vote again. 62% remain 48% leave EU, I really don’t think most Scottish “other than you” would be live they would vote to leave UK if they did get a second referendum!

      If you think NI would vote to leave the UK Brian you are as daft as I think you are! Voted 56% remain 44% leave. NI has a huge number of government civil servants working there, many are Sinn Fein supporters who where probably the bigger group to have voted leave by looking at the map, they will not vote to loose their jobs nor would Southern Ireland be able to support them lol. Did anyone think about asking them if they want the North and the huge cost on SI taxpayers that goes with it lol.

      People with sense would accept the vote and get on with trying to move forward. 🙂

      I wish you and the rest of the UK a great future out of the EU.

    • Newt

      24 June 2016 • 14:10

      Can’t wait to send you on your way. If only Sturgeon would give us English a vote, we’d be very happy to oblige you.

    • Roy Peters

      24 June 2016 • 15:04

      Brian, the Scottish people had their opportunity to separate from the rest of Britain a while ago and they chose to remain.

    • Edward Spalton

      24 June 2016 • 15:19

      It’s not a matter of “turning our back on Europe” but of leaving the political structure of the EU which is designed to create a single European state. Some 74% of EU legislation is geared towards that political end. Of the 26% relating to trade, most is now made by global bodies like UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe). The EU simply transposes their decisions into EU Directives but they are not made in Brussels. The EU has been bound to accept them since 1995. So a large part of the EU’s function is now redundant. Independent countries get to negotiate the rules with UNECE. EU member states do not. They have to accept the Commission’s “Common Position”.

      There are existing arrangements for countries to trade freely with the EU under the EEA/EFTA which are already acceptable to the EU and neighbouring countries. So there is no reason why the UK should not adopt something similar to mutual advantage.

      Unfortunately the Leave campaign was determined to offer no clear plan but this one, called FLEXCIT is available and very thoroughly thought out. From a trade point of view, there would be hardly any noticeable difference. We would have liked to come and explain this in Gibraltar but time did not permit.

    • Stuart

      24 June 2016 • 15:58

      An ‘opportunity to separate from the rest of Britain’ that was still in the EU. Therein lies the difference.

    • Brian Eagleson

      24 June 2016 • 16:44

      I watched Nicola’s entire press conference live on BBC Scotland including all the questions she took afterwards and I understood every word Mike. She took care to mention her SNP election manifesto commitment on the circumstances required for another referendum and the fact they are now fulfilled. I assure you there will be another Scottish Independence referendum. The only difference this time is she has sworn to wait until she can win it. The Scots are angry over the way we are treated by Westminster Tories that we never vote for. This can only get worse when Boris takes charge. Remember the sole reason for the SNP’s very existence is to restore Scottish Independence.

      As for Northern Ireland, history teaches us not to scoff. The Republicans’ commitment to a reunited Ireland will not go away and in fact has just been strengthened.

      Finally, if you choose to reply again, please leave out the insults like “Brian you are as daft as I think you are.” Let’s be a bit more mature in future.

    • Brian Eagleson

      24 June 2016 • 16:53

      Things have changed now Roy. See my reply to Mike.

    • Brian Eagleson

      24 June 2016 • 16:56

      Hi Newt. I live in Spain. It’s still in the EU. So I’m still in the EU and that’s where I’m staying.

    • Toni in Spain

      24 June 2016 • 17:01

      …. This is the biggest mistake that the UK has made (and they have made lots) over the last 70 years!!!
      Watch this page and then the breakup of the UK itself with the loss of Scotland and Northern Island….. the bloody county loss its seas to the Yanks and now will loose its land… at this rate another little lost is land like Malta!!!
      Its a shame such racial prejudice can be the ruination of a once great country!!!

    • Mike in ESP

      24 June 2016 • 21:18

      So NS said Scotland might get a referendum sometime soon, I have not disagreed on that although I doubt it will happen any time in the near future and if it does happen within the next 5 years or so I am fairly convinced the Scottish will not vote to leave the UK, they have already voted recently to remain in the U.K. and I am confident they would continue to do the same unless you can come up with some way of getting money to them to run the place as an independent country.

      I can assure you N.I. will NOT be leaving the UK in my lifetime or yours! I am not scoffing, I know it just won’t happen no matter what Sinn Fein wants…. it’s called money, one of the things that has basically kept the peace process on line, the same thing that is keeping the SInn Fein referendum IN voters in work! Most of them make their living from the UK government and some from handouts from the same, there is nothing to replace that, it is how they keep the rebellious side there at bay!

      Stop getting yourself fretted up, it might be better for your health if you face up to the situation rather than clinging at straws to try and find some excuse for loosing what you wanted.

      I apologise for not replying directly to your first post but I made it from a mobile with a very small screen and actually thought I had hit the Reply link of the post.

    • Mike in ESP

      24 June 2016 • 21:31

      I see the Germans are starting to make rumbling sounds about arrangements or an option to keep trade and some other arrangements in place with the UK so we can continue working with the EU without too much of a issue, this may be them pushing a “twisted” FLEXCIT option! There doesn’t appear to be a lot of information on it at the moment, its only day 1 so things will “I am sure” come to light over the next few weeks. Although we haven’t initiated A50 yet it appears the EU is already looking at options or maybe it’s Germany looking at options to direct Junker and the rest in a direction that would save their exports UK… as many on the Brexit side had suggested might happen

    • Mike in ESP

      24 June 2016 • 21:47

      Oh sorry I forgot to mention, I really don’t think Boris will be taking charge, he is a nice, intelligent and reasonably honest person “as far as politicians are concerned” but he is not PM material because he is too much a softy and the Tories know that.

      I might just add, people talk down Boris and Gove but when Boris told Dave he was for Leave, Dave offered hm a top cabinet position to try to change his mind, he took a few days to think about his position and then finally decided to not take the offer. I would bet that something was offered to Gove also and not taken… now I would be happier with people like them in government than the likes of others such as Teresa May who was a leaver at heart but finally came out as Remain “peerage offer maybe” or Dr. Wollaston who I would guess was offered a position in cabinet and flipped by taking up the offer or Baroness Warsi who tried to jump on the “flip” bandwagon for a freebee but was kind of caught out, whatever people say about them they stood by what they believed and where not bought off by Dave!

    • Mike in ESP

      24 June 2016 • 21:54

      Toni, it is people like you that cause racial issues, the Leave vote was won by just over 17M people voting to leave, are you suggesting they did that through being racists? You need to find yourself a brain and when you do, you might start to use it to understand it is stupid comments like this that help create racism!

    • Brian Eagleson

      25 June 2016 • 06:57

      What we have here is a line of dominoes. With Brexit a reality the first has fallen and the next is already wobbling. It is IndyRef 2 in Scotland. The outcome of IndyRef 1 was due mainly to Osborne’s insistence we would lose the Scottish Pound and Cameron’s insistence that Scotland would be ejected from the EU while the rest of the UK remained. This was called Project Fear, and it worked! Now, less than two years later, Brexit has reversed that situation. More than 62% of Scots voted to stay in the EU while England and Wales voted to leave (by a smaller percentage.) If Scotland is forced out of the EU against its will by England and Wales democracy is dead. That is why IndyRef 2 is inevitable. It would be the only democratic way to deal with such a constitutional crisis.

      Another domino is the presently open Irish border which will have to be secured and remilitarised. Why? Because NI will be inside the Brexited UK while the Irish Republc will still be in the EU – an easy entry point for migrants still wishing to enter the UK. The remilitirisation of the Irish border will carry severe implications for the substantial majority of Irish Republcans who still want a reunified Ireland and it blows a hole in the Good Friday Agreement which previously guaranteed an open border.

      The other dominoes are the countries whose people also want to leave the EU starting with Greece. The destruction of the United Kingdom and even Europe itself has begun.

    • Brian Eagleson

      25 June 2016 • 07:03

      Mike. Drop the bullying tactics against Toni who’s clearly genuinely worried. Let’s keep this clean. By all means make your points but with respect and decency. Otherwise it will just descend into the usual slanging match.

    • Brian Eagleson

      25 June 2016 • 08:41

      Mike, you got what you wanted. You got your Brexit. Now show some respect and be a bit more magnanimous in your victory. I repeat, you need to stop attacking people in such a disgraceful, bullying manner simply because their views differ from yours.  Using language like “you need to find yourself a brain” is insulting and ultimately vacuous. It merely boosts your own ego at the expense of others. It is belittling and unnecessary. There should be no place in our society for bullying online any more than in the outside world. So moderate yourself. Do as you would be done by or continue to be Mr. Nasty. The choice is yours and yours alone.

    • Stuart

      25 June 2016 • 09:10

      You are doing a good job, Mike, at proving what an obnoxious lot of people we Brits can be sometimes. Try to keep a decent tongue in your head or just b…r off and let the rest of us have a sensible conversation. Not all the 17M were racists i’m sure but, driven by the lies in their daily tabloid, many of them were driven by that.

    • Stuart

      25 June 2016 • 09:21

      I’m pleased to read your assurances that Scotland and NI will not be leaving the UK. You are clearly a man with much influence in these matters. However, should your assurances be as flimsy as the promises made by the Leave campaign in the UK, who are already backtracking madly on the £350M to the NHS, I think the rest of us wlil continue to wonder how long it will be.

      Scotland is an easy one – they’ll go as soon as they can as they know their best interests are served in Europe rather than an no-more-United Kingdom; they’ve clearly said that this week. NI is more problematical but the authorities have to do something – we can’t get our country back and close the borders when there’s a big open one from coast to coast on the island of Ireland.

    • Brian Eagleson

      25 June 2016 • 10:35

      It’s not “only about Scotland” Annie. I would never say that or even imply such a thing. I am not so parochial. I live in sunny Spain after all, not wet dreich Scotland 😉

      No, this is much, much bigger and more complicated than just the Scottish issue as I have indicated in my references to Ireland and the rest of the UK and indeed the EU itself. There is a genuine risk that the UK will break up into smaller pieces and that even the EU will tear itself apart as a direct result of the divisive nature of the final Brexit figures. Even Londoners are getting hot under the collar now because they voted to Remain! It would be funny if it wasn’t so serious.

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 16:04

      Other countries wanting to leave the EU, yes about the only thing I agree on with you! There was already a push from other EU countries to leave as a growing number of people grow disillusioned with it. The UK voting to leave will just bring on the inevitable a little quicker and if it happens then hopefully these countries that leave get the chance to move forward back into the world earlier than the prolonged depression created by the EU elite would keep them suffering. There is nothing to stop countries working together and being friends except the thoughts and scaremongering from people like you! The EU is out dated, undemocratic, expensive and cannot take decisions, watch while the UK moves forward while the EU countries trade and economy stagnates even more, the vote was to leave so get over it, be positive and move on! You will see that things will work out as the days and weeks go by, no sense getting yourself into a tizzy every day.
      If you approached this as a more tranquil person and started to work to accept it and get on with it I might respect you more but every time you post its like armageddon is on us… for crying out loud!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 16:07

      News today did not say there would be IndyRef 2, it is on the table… full stop! If it happens in the next few years then I would be very doubtful the Scottish will vote to leave the UK! But if they do that will be their choice and I really think they are more intelligent than what people like you give your country folk credit for!
      N.I. will not be leaving the UK! Your persistent comments show you have no idea about the subject nor the politics there!
      Just to add: NI and the Southern Ireland functioned as two different countries before the EU, although some people like Gerry Adams think different but many politicians & business people there do not see how being out of the EU will get in the way of it continuing to work so how you think you know better baffles me!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 16:18

      Brian, I am not pushing the vote to leave in your face nor belittling you or trying to boost my ego with you because there was a vote to leave! Brian, you continually scaremonger, in the lead up to the referendum you did it and now after the referendum, you seem to have no other vision than doom! Please do not start throwing “bullying” and being “Mr. Nasty” because if you remember it was you that behaved in that pathetic manner towards me!

      I myself expected the vote to go just the other way for Remain, I was as surprised as many at the Brexit vote. I admit that even I was shocked that it happened, when seeing how close it was I also have to admin I felt for the huge number of people that voted to remain… but more voted to leave than to remain Brian. If the result was the other way around I would accept that and get on with things, maybe you should do the same and then maybe I would respect your opinions more rather than continually throwing your toys out of the pram.

    • Toni in Spain

      25 June 2016 • 16:55

      Mike, obviously from your comments you have no understanding of other cultures or interest in any one other than yourself….. Your vote has helped to restrict once again the futures of our children and grandchildren, those who will be paying for your pension in the near future…. GOD SOME OF YOU BRITS ARE REAL SELFISH!!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 17:14

      Stuart, you are definitely very confused. Toni said “racial prejudice” can be the ruination of a once great country:

      Racial prejudice means (Dictionary): A racial prejudice is a negative attitude towards a group of people based on race — not on direct knowledge or experience. If you prejudice someone, you cause them to have a negative attitude towards someone else.

      So he is accusing the leave voters of being racially prejudice! What I can never understand is when people say they want less immigration they are accused of being racist yet when someone states a result is because of racial prejudice then someone else speaks out about it they are “obnoxious” and not “decent”, you are as much as problem as him, get a life! There is nothing wrong with what I said and everything wrong with what he you and Brian are saying, open your eyes and read for crying out loud!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 17:16

      Brian, no bullying tactics, read my reply to Stuart! Being worried is not an excuse to make racist statements!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 17:27

      Both sides of the campaigns made false statements if you want to look over them, it seems the £350M is the only one on the Remain side that people seem to be able to pull Leave up on! Then again, if you look at the £161M that Remain said it was it is still a huge amount. I don’t recollect anyone saying it would be all spent on NHS although common sense would tell you it wouldn’t be, especially as those that where supporting leave where not in a position to decide what the money could be spent on!

      Now maybe try analysing the statements remain made, I think you will need to get yourself a lot of paper!

      We all know the markets would react and currency would drop but the drop being as much as it was is a result of George Osborn’s scare mongering! In other words, the remain of government cost people a lot of money, I see markets starting to recover but notice we haven’t seen anything of George since Brexit!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 17:37

      Stuart, look if Scotland or N.I. leave the UK I will meet up with you and treat you to a huge steak but I really cannot see where you see it is possible for Scotland to leave UK and join EU, it won’t happen and nor will it for N.I., certainly not in our life times!

      I really cannot understand how people like you and Brian think these countries will leave UK, do you know how much it will cost either one? do you think either one has the finances for it? do you think the EU will accept either of them? Do you really think the people of either of those countries want to leave the UK, Scotland has shown it didn’t and not being in the EU will not make much different to that. It’s not what I know, it is common sense and putting facts together that tells me they wont leave! Now on saying that, if leaving is the wish of the people of either of those countries than that is their wish and democracy will have been shown so get on with your life and if it comes up then it comes up but as I say, I do not see either happening so my advice is to relax a little!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 17:45

      Just to pick up on the London comment Brian, if in a general election an area voted Conservative and another voted Labour would you find that funny if it wasn’t so serious and suggest it to be an issue? You are talking like you have lost the plot… It is how the democratic process works in the UK Brian, I bet this process has not been an issue for you before! Accept it or write to your MP and suggest it is changed, would be interesting to see any reply you get!

    • Stuart

      25 June 2016 • 21:24

      Like many of the Leave camp you have a very short memory. As you find words difficult, and as you seem to be incapable of not insulting people I’ll sink to your level this once, just go find a picture of the Leave battle-bus.I think you’ll find it easy to read. We concentrate on the £350M claim because that’s what Leave chose to lead with. Incidentally, the cost of £161M is about 30p per person per day, a very small price to pay for access to the single market and far less than it will cost us to trade in the future or has cost us already in lost value of the pound and our pensions.

      However such discussions with you are pointless and I shall not comment on them again. You won, you have your country back (even though you don’t live there) and there are millions that do that are going to have to live your decision. Time will tell who was right.

    • Stuart

      25 June 2016 • 21:28

      Forgive me if I don’t take your advice. Your earlier advice would have been to vote leave and we can see already what a mess that has left us in and we’re only two days into it so you don’t have a great track record.

      It’s typical of some Brits (usually English) to believe there is something special about themselves and that people would be mad to want to leave them. Get over yourself – the world will carry on quite happily without us be they Scots, Irish, French or German.

    • Stuart

      25 June 2016 • 21:39

      Not confused at all, Mike. Never been more terrifyingly awake. Yes, it was racial prejudice that tipped the balance – there would have been a good number of people voting to leave anyway but the racial hatred and xenophobia whipped up by some of the UK press had a definite impact. You only need to watch some being interviewed in the UK news to see that. Note I said SOME not ALL – as you seem to have difficulty with that differentiation.

      Oh, and telling someone they need to get a brain, as you did to Toni, or to ‘get a life’ as you did to me, is obnoxious and I don’t need a dictionary to help me with that one. You obviously got confused as to why I thought you were obnoxious – I doubt you recognise it in yourself – it wasn’t anything to do with being racist it was just that some of us were taught good manners.

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 21:40

      Firstly Toni I didn’t vote, being the holder of a British passport I couldn’t as I have been out of the UK for 15 years, strange though that an Irish passport holder residing in the UK could vote on a British referendum but that is another issue! If remain couldn’t win with the amount of money they spent, amount of propaganda they produced, amount of bankers they brought in, amount of stars they brought out, number of world politicians they took on board then do you really still sit there believing this rubbish you write, leave won the vote by 1.4 Million votes on a 72% turnout for crying out loud!

      You say my vote “meaning leave voters” votes restrict the futures of our children and grandchildren! Well I am sorry but I believe the opposite.. but if you are looking to blame someone for that then blame the young people not leave voters! If you took any interest in what you are saying and look at voting data you will see it was the young people that are to blame because you never got a remain vote! Check out Sky data page and you will see turnout for 18 to 24 year olds was 36%, 25 to 34 years was 58%, 35 to 44 was 72% so they are the ones to blame!

      I will be the one that has paid for my pension Toni, I put the money in and so I get the returns from it, not someone else!

      You are the selfish one Toni, this has nothing to do with other races, this was to do with the UK and the UK people and they voted to leave! You don’t accept or understand what democracy is about!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 22:05

      Yes you are confused Stuart, it doesn’t matter you said “some” and not “all”, I was disputing your support of calling me and other British obnoxious because I suggested to Toni he made the statement that “racial prejudice can be the ruination of a once great country” and that “people like you that cause racial issues”, people making statements like that install racism! I do not deny some people who voted leave where racist but then I am sure the same happened on the remain side but that happens is is no reason make the silly statement that was made.

      Many people are scared Stuart, even many leave voters but that was the result, and change can be scary, people need to think positive and move forward as many suggest, if people keep spurting out fear then those that take the scaremongering and insinuations of racial prejudice will be changing their nappies every half hour! Stand back for a while and separate yourself from this as nothing much is going to change for a while apart from some basic process including a new PM, nothing much is going to happen until that takes place!

    • Mike in ESP

      25 June 2016 • 22:55

      Maybe you are just someone who voted to leave the UK in the Scottish referendum and the EU referendum result is just a reason to blow off, just a thought! 😉

      Scotland:
      Voting numbers: 2,679,513
      Voted remain: 1,661,191
      Voted leave: 1,018,322

      Total UK electorate: 46,501,241
      Voted remain: 17,410,742
      Voted leave: 16,141,241

      Even if all the Scots voted to remain the vote would have still been for leave!

      A difference of 642,869 Scottish voted to remain over leave out of a total of 2,679,513, the Scots where 13.5% of the total referendum vote.

      So anyway, how does a country of 4M people such as Scotland cover the cost of its EU membership? I don’t mean if they could afford it but in being economically worth it and going through a long transition period… Scotland is far better off in the UK like it or not… but have your second referendum and vote to go it alone if thats what you thinks good for Scotland 😉

    • Toni in Spain

      26 June 2016 • 09:17

      Mike…. were now a “divided” country, from a “divided” Europe set on a downward path for the next 10 years… and “once again” leaving big questions and an onerous future for our grand children to have to sort.
      That selfish “older generation” of GB’s who seek to bring back the “good old days” of Gran Britannia and its British Empire, sailing the high seas and in control of the world…. yours is a generation of “old school” Brit’s David that conveniently forget whilst living out side the UK (in Spain’s Costas) they are also “immigrants” themselves, ….. yes of-course having a lot of “bucks” makes it so very different for you and other GB’s like you…
      The EU’s not anywhere near a perfect solution, but at least its been a “good try” at achieving peace and prosperity after two world wars that saw tens of millions dead, and the economic “guts” ripped out of your beloved Britain……. l am the first to admit that it needs “cleaning up” but “United” (not “divided”) and from inside…
      Britain’s been part of the EU for the last 43 years, the UK has been at the centre of EUROPE and an important part of the UK (and Europe’s) function and development, whether you like it or not, to divide us is not the answer, and never will be an answer to resolving problems, what we need is to resolve our differences in a “United” UK and a “United” EU.
      You (WE) only have, “relatively speaking”, a few years left in which to regret this mistake and if you have your way a possibility of a third World War!!

    • Mike in ESP

      26 June 2016 • 09:21

      Sorry Brian, but it looks like you have definitely lost the plot, adios on this one “son”!

    • Stuart

      26 June 2016 • 09:43

      Oh, Mike. Your ignorance knows no bounds does it. Estonia has a population of 1.3M (yes, go check first, you’ll find they are in the EU), Cyprus 0.8M, Ireland 4.6M, Latvia 1,9M, Luxumburg 0.5M, Malta 0.4M … need I go on. Scotland would be far from the smallest EU member. You really need to engage brain before typing finger. And read more widely than the Daily Mail. PS. I do not live in Scotland.

    • Stuart

      26 June 2016 • 10:15

      There are dozens of examples of the Leave camp lying to us, the £350M is just one (NF), they also now admit leaving will not affect immigration (Hannan, MEP), they don’t want to trigger Article 50 just yet (Boris de Pfeffel Johnson) and let’s leave the Ireland border open (all of them I think).

      And yes, the world will still want to trade with us – it’s the terms under which they do that matters. And we import more goods than we export so we’re off on the wrong foot to start with. Even our commonwealth countries (remember them?) are now worried as they are about to lose access, via the UK, to the EU open market. Our financial institutions are already making plans to leave London (so that’s another load of exports and tax gone) – unless we remain in the EEA like Norway, pay our open market contribution (maybe as much as we were paying for membership, like Norway), accept most EU rules and allow free movement of people. Sound familiar? A bit like EU membership but without the ability to vote.

      But all this of course depends on what terms the EU will offer us. You may think they will come crawling to us needing our business, others may think it will be the other way around. Maybe a compromise but it will be worse than we currently have, the remaining 27 will make sure of that. Why would they do otherwise – it’s money in their pockets.

    • Stuart

      26 June 2016 • 10:16

      Sorry, folks, I know I said I wouldn’t comment again but, taking a leaf from the Leave campaign and going back on my word, I just have to. Mike, with his unique finger on the pulse of the UK that comes from not having lived there for over 15 years, is so full of opinion and fact-less facts it does make you wonder where he has been putting that finger. In his ears maybe?

      So no, Mike, it’s not just about the £350M lie, it’s about all the other lies. If you were over here in the UK you would feel the fear. Wrapped up in your villa in Spain, or wherever, the world may look very rosy – you just can’t see the thorns from there.

      PS. ‘Where’ is the word used in a question or statement about physical position. ‘Were’ is a word used to indicate the past. It’ll be in the same dictionary you quoted at me a few days ago.

    • Mike in ESP

      26 June 2016 • 19:22

      Toni, After every general election the country is divided for crying out loud!

      You obviously missed my post that explains to you it was the younger generation that made this “so called” mistake you go on about, not the older generation!

      You can look at this as you want Toni, I look on the positive side, I am looking towards moving forward and on that positively side, you look at it as you want but stop trying to scare people!

    • Mike in ESP

      26 June 2016 • 19:44

      Look at your own camp before you start throwing stones Toni!

      Triggering artical 50 right away would be totally stupid, always would have been, the right way to do it would be to try and get the exit plan together so it gives them more time to exit. Sadly but not unexpectedly Dave decided he would go rather than help get things moving quickly and smoothly, so now there is a PM to sort out, if the man had any sense he would have started the ball rolling rather than create this current delay and more unease… but as always he thought of himself!

      You state “EU membership but without the ability to vote”, but our vote means practically nothing in the EU, what use is it being there we they don’t listen to us, if they had then we wouldn’t be where we are now. Vetos mean nothing or at best very little no matter what you believe!

      The Dutch voted to reject the Utrecht treat and where then told “tough” the decision have been taken, the Irish where made to vote a second time on the Lisbon treat because the EU elite didn’t like their first vote. the TTIP agreement is being put together behind closed doors “A trade agreement behind closed doors”, whats all that about for crying out loud! I would rather have less money than be run by such a “Mafia like” organisation but then of course there are people like you that obviously are not interested in the principal of trying to keep a fair and reasonable honest democratic society! … you will as the rest of the world just have to wait and see!

    • Mike in ESP

      26 June 2016 • 19:45

      You have guessed nothing much about me right Toni, just the same as I feel on your views relating to the benefits on being out of the EU if seems 😉

    • Brian Eagleson

      26 June 2016 • 21:19

      A small sample of your own recent words accurately quoted back at you Mike.

      “You are the selfish one.”
      “You don’t accept or understand what democracy is about.”
      “You are talking like you have lost the plot.”
      “You have definitely lost the plot.”
      “You need to find yourself a brain.”
      “…continually throwing your toys out of the pram.”
      “Get a life!”
      “You are as daft as I think you are.”
      And finally my favourite “…but that happens is no reason make the silly statement that was made.” Eh?

      You always start the abuse Mike – all by yourself. Just occasionally I give you back a slightly diluted dose of your own medicine. Why? Because if you can not or will not recognise of your own accord that your abusive tactics are out of order then you have to be told. If you think you can convert anyone to your point of view by abusing them in this manner then you are very much mistaken. What you achieve by using such methods is in fact the exact opposite of what you want to achieve. Any psychologist will tell you that.

    • Brian Eagleson

      26 June 2016 • 22:45

      Many of you will be aware that Mike is rubbishing me in his usual manner over my comments on the aftermath of Brexit. Please be aware that my comments are not just my own. They are based on information made available by many respected political analysts and commentators. Much of it has been covered extensively in the media and a great deal more is freely available online.

      It is no secret that the 400 year old unity of the United Kingdom is now greatly at risk as a direct result of the disparity in voting figures between the different countries that make up the UK. When King James VI of Scotland took the throne of England and Ireland in the Union of the Crowns in 1603 the fledgling UK was effectively born. It has weathered many political storms in the intervening years but that unity has never been more vulnerable than it is now. Believe me there is a “clear and present danger” that the big percentage majority in Scotland in favour of Remain and the slightly smaller majority in Northern Ireland puts both nations in direct conflict with the relatively lower percentage of voters in England and Wales who voted for Brexit.

      It is only a matter of time before any other methods of solving this crisis are exhausted and the only alternative left will be another Scottish referendum. If it succeeds like the Brexit did we will all be the poorer – literally as well as metaphorically. Meanwhile let’s just wait for the Grexit. Probably not much chance of a Spexit following Spain’s election though – yet.

    • Brian Eagleson

      27 June 2016 • 08:39

      As someone who voted to Remain it is clear that much of what I predicted long ago if there was a Brexit has already happened – and as I write this the result is only 3 days old!

      I am not some doom-monger. I merely say things as I see them – whether they be good or bad. I am neutral in that respect. Most of we British expats here in Spain get most of our income from UK sources (pensions etc.) and we spend it in the bars and restaurants and shops run by Brits as well as others. We already have less money to spend following the slump in the Pound. This will reduce the income of the bars and restaurants and adversely affect their owners and the economy in general. It remains to be seen if Osborne’s and Carney’s desperate attempts to shore up the Pound will stem the flood of investors moving to other more stable currencies. Britain is very small and the rest of the world is very big. A further recession is inevitable – not just in Britain but by knock on effect here too.

      I was speaking with my Spanish lawyer on Friday. He said he will be advising many of his property purchasing customers to suspend buying now because their already stretched finances will be stretched too far and they could end up in severe financial difficulties. A 10% fall in purchasing power when buying a “Place in the Sun” costs you thousands.

      All because of Brexit.

    • Brian Eagleson

      28 June 2016 • 09:04

      Brexit campaigners change their minds.

      The claim: Immigration would be reduced.
      The backtrack: Immigration can’t be radically reduced by leaving the EU. British MEP Daniel Hannan says on Newsnight, “We never said there was going to be some radical decline. We want a measure of control. Frankly, if people watching think they have voted and there is now going to be zero immigration from the EU, they are going to be disappointed.

      The claim: We send £350 million a week to Brussels which could be spent on the NHS.
      The backtrack: Sorry, the claim was a mistake. Actually it’s really £176 million because we send £276 million initially and £100 million of that comes back to the UK for spending on such things as farming, funding research etc.

      The claim: The UK does not need preferential access to the single market.
      The backtrack: the UK needs preferential access to the single market! But the UK will not have to accept freedom of movement at the same time. The reality is no country has ever been given preferential access to the single market without also accepting freedom of movement.

      It goes on, but you get the picture, don’t you.

    • Mike in ESP

      28 June 2016 • 15:38

      Claims might have been exaggerated but I might add “this was the case on both sides” and is the case in every election we have… or didn’t you realise that!

      You have no idea as to what is going to happen on any extra or less expenditure just as you have no idea on if we get access to or not in any single market, you just listed to what you read and hear in the news and then build a rather large fire with that smoke!

      You try to tell people you know what is happening and yet we haven’t even got a prime minister in place yet with the committee who will decide what is happening exactly!

      You are just another bad looser trying to create problems for the people of your country through negative speculation, my advise is to calm down and sit back to see what exactly is happening… thak goodness you are not a medic who has to operate on someone and keep his cool when something goes the way you do not want or expect it!

    • Mike in ESP

      28 June 2016 • 15:40

      Brian, you have another 16M people to make comments and those might think long the lines of you but there are 17M who thought otherwise, its called democracy!

      Its funny how everyone wants democracy… until the vote doesn’t go as they wanted 😉

    • Mike in ESP

      28 June 2016 • 15:51

      All the above you quoted me on saying is try, but then you need to read the stuff you are writing Brian!

      I might add it is you that started the abuse or took it on from posts where others started it, on two main disagreements we have had “both related to Brexit” you have ended up by threatening me by your size and that you would like to punch me in the face while on another trying to scare me by stating something along the lines of “there are people out there that are reading my comments that I have made and that I and you are spreading that word, be careful, be very careful” (From memory but the threat was obviously there).

      I am sure you feel you are an outstanding example for your fellow Scots Brian! I always have felt that those who resort to fear and threatening behaviour are those who are getting desperate on loosing the argument! Readers can take what they want from them but that is what my experience has taught me.

      I am done with you on this on, I hope the other readers see your desperation that shows through your posts.

    • Brian Eagleson

      28 June 2016 • 16:48

      As always Mike you have completely misunderstood my point. Go and read it again – properly this time.

      Have you noticed the map circulating on Facebook showing the “striking similarity” between the Brexit vote locations in 2016 and the Mad Cow Disease outbreak areas in 1992? It’s definitely  Photoshopped ‘cos they’re identical, but it’s very funny!

      Latest news, Boris Johnson has announced he will NOT call a general election if he is elected as Tory leader and Prime minister. In other words he does not have the courage to face the electorate until 2020! – the scheduled date for the next one.

      This mistake was made by Jim Callaghan when he replaced Harold Wilson and it led directly to the infamous “Winter of Discontent” and the election of Margaret Thatcher. Gordon Brown made the same mistake when he succeeded Tony Blair and was ejected by the electorate as soon as they (eventually) got the chance.

      Beware the Boris. He is flying in the face of democracy. History teaches us he will pay the price just like the other two. It is small comfort that his opponent, the Labour leader in 2020, will not be Jeremy Corbyn following today’s overwhelming vote of no confidence, but who will it be? A Dalek? Might be an improvement…

      Isn’t this fun?

    • Mike in ESP

      28 June 2016 • 18:12

      I said I was done on this but can’t let this go!

      Whoever takes the position of PM “hopefully not Boris”, the right move would be to NOT have a general election, do you think that would be the right thing for them to do that? We have just voted to leave the EU, negotiations need to start and the sooner the better, not good to have a general election in the next several months? The situations of the country and politics with Callaghan and Brown have no similarity on current situations. Its not a good for either Labour or Tories, they have both got too much too loose right now and over the next few months will also. Even the fact Labour are in meltdown the Tories might be close to that also and both need to get themselves sorted out, no winners “except maybe UKIP 😉 ” if an election was called in the near future!

      I really am done with this Brian, people will just have to wait and see how things unfold although if artical 50 is ever invoked I really do think “most” people in the UK will be better off in the long run, we all know it won’t be smooth and there will be bumps “some bigger than others” but I really do believe the UK “yes, including Scotland 🙂 ” will be better off, we should except the result and stick together as a United Kingdom. Only time will tell, nothing will become clear in the first several months to come so I think we all need to settle down, keep calm and hopefully the UK can go forward positively.

    • MikeinESP

      28 June 2016 • 22:27

      Stuart, read what I said again as it might help you understand that I was clearly referring to the overall economic benefits and not the size of the population being a restriction, I suggest you looked at the voting stats and the 4M figure and went off on one! Scotland’s population is far better off with the UK out of the EU than it would ever be if it joined the EU! As I previously explained Scotland would have a transition period, very possibly have to join the Euro and then after all that… would it actually be any better off… why would anyone in their right minds put Scotland through leaving the UK and then join the EU as a separate entity now? Oh I just had a vision of Sturgeon standing there singing: Its all about Nicola, Nicola, Nicola and not the Scottish people!
      Stuart, I must read the Daily Mail less than you as I don’t know what it says about Scotland! Lol, and you tell me to engage my brain!

    • Brian Eagleson

      29 June 2016 • 05:19

      Further help Mike. The keyword in my advice to you earlier is “IMAGINE”. I asked you to IMAGINE being with a six foot four boxer built like a tank next time you feel like hurling abuse. That means he is not me – he is imaginary! If all online abusers of old men or young girls or whoever were to pause for a moment and IMAGINE they were facing instead a big man with an iron fist in the real world it might help to stop them from being so abusive. Now do you understand me? Then the world might be a better place than it actually is.

      Honestly, Your ability to read something and completely grasp the wrong end of the stick is breathtaking! It makes me wonder what you see when you read anything at all. For example, when you are gathering information for some of your many pronouncements just how accurate are you? Just how often do you grab the wrong end of the stick? Incidentally, you made exactly the same mistake many moons ago when I gave you that similar piece of advice that you have been trying to remember. I was not abusing you back then and I am not abusing you now. So even your perception of being abused yourself is imaginary!

      Your perception of me could not be further from the truth, so next time you think you are being offended by anyone Mike, read it again before you do anything. Then your posts might make more sense.

    • Toni in Spain

      29 June 2016 • 08:26

      All this “nagging” guys it’s getting nowhere, the vote is the vote and it can’t and won’t be changed.

      Look whether we like it or not (and as you know l am a don’t like Brexit) our democratic UK has decided to pull out of the EU so what we surely now need to do is get behind that “democratic decision” and try to work together to make it as successful as possible for the UK, its future and the future of our grandchildren.

      I have spent almost thirty years here in Spain trying, in a small way, to move Spain towards the type of democracy the UK has, here in Spain we have one day every four years of democracy and then the politicians and their terrible administration do, taking from us what they like, if you don’t agree, and even if they break their own laws, well “tough” they embargo your bank accounts or properties and take it anyway, leaving US to have to go to the Courts to get our money or property back, as the PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón said the other day, the referendum the UK has given its population, the Spanish Government would never give its people.

      We need to be thankful guys the UK is not like Spain, and let’s PLEASE now unite and get behind a new leave government in trying to make this vote work for the UK.

    • Brian Eagleson

      29 June 2016 • 11:03

      Hi Toni. I am very much in agreement with you and very grateful for your excellent input. It’s funny though that Mike just keeps banging on as if he’s still campaigning for Brexit even though he’s already won!

      Yes it would be a disaster for us all if Scotland votes to leave the United Kingdom. We would all be impoverished. Mike seems to think because I’m Scottish I must be a Scot Nat, but he’s as wrong about that as he is about most things. When I write anything at all I write it from an open point of view just reflecting things as I see them. As such, it looks like you and I are on exactly the same wavelength, would you agree?

      The thing he and other Brexit supporters need to recognise though is virtually two thirds of Scots voted to Remain in the EU. If any MP ever managed to get elected by two thirds of their voters they would be over the moon! It’s a huge majority. The England and Wales Brexit on the other hand had much smaller support. Therein lies the crux of the matter. Scotland is not just a region. It is a proud country with its own legal system, its own currency the Scottish Pound and many other factors that make it distinctly different from England. However if it quits the UK in the same messy way that the UK is quitting the EU then we will all be even poorer than we are already, either here in Spain or within what used to be the United Kingdom. The latest polls in Scotland show 60% support for independence btw. That’s why wee Nicola will get IndyRef 2.

    • Brian Eagleson

      29 June 2016 • 15:09

      Hi Stuart. Just to say thanks very much for your excellent contributions. Don’t let Mike get to you though. I’m sure you’ll be familiar with a wonderful Latin phrase I learned at school more than half a century ago – but in the playground, not the classroom! “Nil illegitimi carborundum.” We’ll just leave Mike to work out what it means, eh? He’s sure to get it wrong 😉

    • Brian Eagleson

      29 June 2016 • 18:31

      Wednesday 29 June. Fallout from wee Nicola’s visit to Brussels.

      Rajoy’s negative attitude on behalf of Spain towards Scotland’s aspiration to remain within the EU is no surprise. It has more to do with the pressure he is under to defend Spain against Catalan independence than anything else. The prolonged standing ovation in the European Parliament yesterday for the Scottish MEP Alyn Smith’s passionate speech is more indicative of the general sympathy in Europe for Scotland’s plight. (Shame on the English BBC News for editing it out btw. BBC Scotland showed it.)

      So as a lonely minority PM Rajoy in his typically aggressive and dismissive manner mouths off,  “Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union!” most others are much more in favour. Wee Nicola has also had what is officially described as a “sympathetic response” from Jean-Claude Juncker , the President of the European Commission.

      Now top US bank, JP Morgan, has issued a statement that it expects Scotland to vote for independence and introduce its own currency before Britain leaves the European Union in 2019. Interesting forecast from a US financial institution.

      So the break-up of the United Kingdom gathers momentum.

      All because of Brexit.

    • Brian Eagleson

      30 June 2016 • 07:41

      Mike, you say you are really done with this but there is no sign of that in your other posts so here is my next reply to you.

      You say, “The right move would be to NOT have a general election” immediately after the next Tory leader, and therefore Prime Minister is named.

      Why?

      What legitimacy with the electorate of the UK would he or she have?

      Let’s say it’s Boris. He is the bookies’ favourite after all. What experience of government and international affairs does he have? Former Mayor of London – that’s all. So he goes on to rule the entire UK (including restless Scotland and NI) with no mandate from the people and  only a vote by his fellow Tory MPs or Tory party members making him our next Prime Minister. Not good enough!

      Funny thing is though, with Labour in such extreme disarray he would probably romp home! The real reason he is unlikely to hold an election is NOBODY in Scotland would vote for him! I mean it. The outrage in Scotland would ensure the single Scottish Tory MP would disappear. The single Labour and Lib Dem ones (remember them?) would also disappear given the current situation. The pressure for Scotland to quit the UK would become unstoppable with 100% SNP MPs and two thirds of the people wanting to stay in the EU.

      This is deadly serious stuff Mike. Make no mistake about that. Scotland’s involvement in this post-Brexit mess has never been more important.

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