Thu, 07 May 11:00 2009

Another term for Correa

THE victory of Rafael Correa in Ecuador’s presidential election on April 26, whilst not unexpected, was memorable for being the first time an incumbent has won a second term for more than a century. It has also been 30 years since the presidency was decided by a first-round vote, with Correa’s 55.7 per cent of the poll well ahead of his closest rival, the former president, Lucio Gutierrez.
Correa, 46, was educated in Louvain (Belgium) and the United States, obtaining a doctorate in economics from the University of Illinois. He became Economy minister in April 2005 but was obliged to resign four months later, after ferociously criticising the World Bank for denying Ecuador a loan.
Correa became president in November 2006, replacing Gutierrez’s successor, Alfredo Palacio. Gutierrez, who fled the presidential palace in the capital, Quito, in a helicopter during a popular revolt in 2005, was unimpressed with Correa’s re-election, claiming that the president’s socialism is divisive and has created problems with neighbouring Colombia and Brazil. Correa, he claimed, has likewise alienated the United States by refusing to extend its lease on the Manta air-base, which is used for drug surveillance flights. Gutierrez has also questioned the transparency of the elections, despite the presence of observers from the European Union and the Organisation of American States.
Correa’s rivals have also accused him of disregarding Ecuador’s existing democratic infrastructure in a revision of the country’s constitution, last September, which not only allowed him to run for re-election, but imposed tougher state control over private industry and land distribution, with 16-year-olds, prisoners, police and the military now allowed to vote.
Increased social and public spending have won Correa popular backing, as has his stance on multinationals and foreign investors, which many believe exploit Ecuador’s resources.
However, analysts predict that, despite his election triumph, Correa faces a complex economic situation and, with oil representing more than 60 per cent of Ecuador’s exports, falling prices mean that the next government will have less cash for social programmes.
Nor will borrowing to compensate for the shortfall be easy, following Correa’s decision not to pay Ecuador’s billion-dollar debts, which he pronounced to be illegal in 2008. How was it possible, he asked, for the country’s earnings to have tripled while the external debt increased two hundredfold?
Thanking voters last week, Correa reminded them that none of the preceding seven presidents had completed a full term in office. Offering the Opposition dialogue and urging a comprehensive national agreement, he said, “today we have reached another stage.” However, it is the stage following this one which will decide the shape and substance of Correa’s future government.

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